Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 95
Majerus-Collins is very likely to win: Majerus-Collins wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Majerus-Collins (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Martel (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+24.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Majerus-Collins is very likely to win: Majerus-Collins wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Majerus-Collins (D)
98%
chance of winning
Martel (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+22.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Bret M Martel
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,377
- People per km²
- 997
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 16%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 27%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
2,144 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mana Hared Abdi (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
1,305 two-party votes · D+8.4 · D+9.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.2%
Donald Trump (R)45.8%
2022
1,847 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mana H Abdi (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,194 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ William D Pluecker (—)53.8%
Molly P Luce (R)46.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
3,618 two-party votes · D+19.7 · D+15.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.8%
Donald Trump (R)40.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
2,993 two-party votes · R+0.4 · R+2.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.