Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 53
Lemelin is very likely to win: Lemelin wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Goldman (D)
5%
chance of winning
Lemelin (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+12.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lemelin is clearly favored to win: Lemelin wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Goldman (D)
8%
chance of winning
Lemelin (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+13.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Michael H Lemelin
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.27 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.27 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,526
- People per km²
- 33
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 73%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 6%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,469 votes · R+18.4✓ Michael H Lemelin (R)59.2%
Judy E Tunkle (D)40.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,561 two-party votes · R+18.3 · R+16.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Kamala Harris (D)40.9%
2022
4,633 votes · R+15.3✓ Michael Lemelin (R)57.7%
Jane L Beckwith (D)42.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,156 votes · D+3.3✓ Allison L Hepler (D)51.7%
Jeffrey K Pierce (R)48.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,399 two-party votes · R+13.7 · R+18.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Joe Biden (D)43.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,777 two-party votes · R+16.8 · R+19.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.6%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-47Wayne K FarrinChester B Grover IIIFlip risk77%Dem.51%Rep. HD-49Trent E VellellaSuzanne R Andresen97%Dem.89%Dem. HD-52Sally Jeane ClucheyDavid W GuilmetteFlip risk64%Dem.56%Rep. HD-54Karen L MontellMichelle M Tucker99%Dem.92%Dem. HD-55Maureen AucoinCharles L Hippler IV93%Dem.84%Dem. HD-60William R BridgeoWyatt Albert Beaulieu98%Dem.92%Dem.