DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 54
Montell is very likely to win: Montell wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Montell (D)
99%
chance of winning
Tucker (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+17.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Montell is clearly favored to win: Montell wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Montell (D)
92%
chance of winning
Tucker (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+13.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Michelle M Tucker
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.6 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.39 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,105
- People per km²
- 125
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,916 votes · D+8.3✓ Karen L Montell (D)54.1%
Scott Douglas Williams (R)45.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,818 two-party votes · D+12.4 · D+13.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.2%
Donald Trump (R)43.8%
2022
4,290 votes · D+3.6✓ Karen L Montell (D)49.8%
Charles J Bussell (R)46.3%
Nicolas Delli Paoli (—)3.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,410 votes · D+25.3✓ Denise A Tepler (D)62.7%
Toni Jo Bashinsky (R)37.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,869 two-party votes · D+7.8 · D+3.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.9%
Donald Trump (R)46.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,365 two-party votes · D+2.5 · D+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.