DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 105
Graham is very likely to win: Graham wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Graham (D)
99%
chance of winning
Fuller (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Graham is very likely to win: Graham wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Graham (D)
96%
chance of winning
Fuller (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+17.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Susan E Fuller
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.87 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.87 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.87 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,515
- People per km²
- 88
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,210 votes · D+6.4✓ Anne P Graham (D)53.2%
Susan M Austin (R)46.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,924 two-party votes · D+15.7 · D+17.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.9%
Donald Trump (R)42.1%
2022
5,302 votes · D+15.9✓ Anne Graham (D)57.9%
David Lawrence Reed (R)42.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,059 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Joel R Stetkis (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,737 two-party votes · D+16.1 · D+11.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.1%
Donald Trump (R)41.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,830 two-party votes · D+8.0 · D+5.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.