Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 11
Strout is very likely to win: Strout wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Newman (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Strout (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+24.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Strout is very likely to win: Strout wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Newman (D)
2%
chance of winning
Strout (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+23.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Tiffany Strout
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.78 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -10.39 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,738
- People per km²
- 4
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,995 votes · R+39.4✓ Tiffany Strout (R)69.7%
Roland Eben Rogers (D)30.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,259 two-party votes · R+28.0 · R+26.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.0%
Kamala Harris (D)36.0%
2022
4,443 votes · R+36.4✓ Tiffany Strout (R)68.2%
Roland Eben Rogers III (D)31.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,113 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ryan M Fecteau (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,005 two-party votes · R+21.7 · R+26.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Joe Biden (D)39.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,466 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+24.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.9%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.