Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 136
Eder is favored to win: Eder wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Conners (D)
20%
chance of winning
Eder (R)
80%
- Average margin
- R+6.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Eder is favored to win: Eder wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Conners (D)
25%
chance of winning
Eder (R)
75%
- Average margin
- R+6.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
John Eder
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.43 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.03 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.03 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,125
- People per km²
- 16
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 94%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,509 votes · R+13.9✓ John M Eder (R)56.9%
Michelle Kathryn Conners (D)43.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,916 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Kamala Harris (D)44.9%
2022
4,639 votes · R+10.8✓ Heidi H Sampson (R)55.4%
Joseph Andrew Wagner (D)44.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,033 votes · R+27.1✓ William Robert Faulkingham (R)63.5%
Antonio Blasi (D)36.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,630 two-party votes · R+6.7 · R+11.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.4%
Joe Biden (D)46.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,730 two-party votes · R+13.2 · R+15.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.4%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-135Lisa Joy Pratt—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-137Charles TilburgNathan M Carlow78%Rep.70%Rep. HD-138Oliver D McAvoyJonathan Lee Kinney95%Rep.89%Rep. HD-139Dean P LepageJamie K Newton93%Rep.87%Rep. HD-140Kirstan L WatsonWayne R Parry79%Rep.66%Rep. HD-141Rebecca L Flood AndrewsMarc A Boisse68%Rep.78%Rep. HD-142Ayn M HanselmannGordon E Frohloff88%Dem.84%Dem. HD-143John R HenkelmanEric H SmallFlip riskFlip risk52%Dem.56%Dem.