Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 102
Pillsbury is very likely to win: Pillsbury wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Pillsbury (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lawrence (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+41.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+32 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+44
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Pillsbury is very likely to win: Pillsbury wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Pillsbury (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lawrence (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+32 to D+58
- Partisan lean
- D+44
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.7 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+44: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,802
- People per km²
- 73
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 60%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,042 votes · D+39.7✓ Melanie Fleming Sachs (D)69.8%
James J Finegan (R)30.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,047 two-party votes · D+43.2 · D+44.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)71.6%
Donald Trump (R)28.4%
2022
5,176 votes · D+42.0✓ Melanie F Sachs (D)71.0%
James J Finegan Jr (R)29.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,167 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Abigail W Griffin (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,052 two-party votes · D+44.5 · D+40.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)72.3%
Donald Trump (R)27.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,118 two-party votes · D+35.6 · D+33.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.8%
Donald Trump (R)32.2%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-98Kilton McCarthy WebbWilliam J St. Michel96%Dem.87%Dem. HD-99Cheryl A GolekBraeden D Webber>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-100Daniel Joseph AnkelesBrett Y Barrett>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-101Poppy T ArfordRavi Jackson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-103Karin Orenstein—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-110Christina R.C. MitchellJason Lewis Copp>99%Dem.>99%Dem.