DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 151
Mathieson is very likely to win: Mathieson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mathieson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Johnson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+43.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+34 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mathieson is very likely to win: Mathieson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mathieson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Johnson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+43.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+56
- Partisan lean
- D+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Suzanne Johnson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.54 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.54 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+43: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,473
- People per km²
- 55
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,606 votes · D+40.5✓ Kristi Michele Mathieson (D)70.3%
Suzanne C Johnson (R)29.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,246 two-party votes · D+42.7 · D+44.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)71.3%
Donald Trump (R)28.7%
2022
3,735 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kristi Michele Mathieson (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,900 votes · D+12.8✓ John L Martin (D)56.4%
Kevin A Bushey (R)43.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,171 two-party votes · D+42.2 · D+37.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)71.1%
Donald Trump (R)28.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,164 two-party votes · D+33.4 · D+31.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.7%
Donald Trump (R)33.3%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.