Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 119
Dixon is very likely to win: Dixon wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Dixon (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Wakem (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+66.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+57 to D+77
- Partisan lean
- D+70
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Dixon is very likely to win: Dixon wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Dixon (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Wakem (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+74.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+62 to D+88
- Partisan lean
- D+70
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jacob Murray Wakem
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.11 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+70: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,186
- People per km²
- 44
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 59%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 10%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,645 votes · D+70.0✓ Charles A Skold (D)85.0%
Peter Ignatius Doyle (R)15.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
32,197 two-party votes · D+67.6 · D+69.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)83.8%
Donald Trump (R)16.2%
2022
4,830 votes · D+75.0✓ Charles A Skold (D)87.5%
Peter Ignatius Doyle (R)12.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,977 votes · R+41.0✓ Paul A Stearns (R)70.5%
Margarita L Contreni (D)29.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,232 two-party votes · D+78.8 · D+74.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)89.4%
Donald Trump (R)10.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,531 two-party votes · D+73.0 · D+70.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)86.5%
Donald Trump (R)13.5%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-110Christina R.C. MitchellJason Lewis Copp>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-111Amy D Kuhn—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-114April D Fournier—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-117Matthew Moonen—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-118Yusuf M Yusuf—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-122Matthew D Beck—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-123Michelle N BoyerAnnie Christy>99%Dem.>99%Dem.