Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 7
Craine is very likely to win: Craine wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Rush (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Craine (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Craine is very likely to win: Craine wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Rush (D)
1%
chance of winning
Craine (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+30.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jantzen Stephen Craine
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.58 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -22.67 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,172
- People per km²
- 22
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 73%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,503 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Gregory L Swallow (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,202 two-party votes · R+36.0 · R+34.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.0%
Kamala Harris (D)32.0%
2022
2,744 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Gregory L Swallow (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
7,244 votes · R+2.8✓ Timothy M Roche (R)51.4%
Daniel J Hobbs (D)48.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,223 two-party votes · R+30.9 · R+35.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.5%
Joe Biden (D)34.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,858 two-party votes · R+32.4 · R+34.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.