Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 120
Shedlock is very likely to win: Shedlock wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Shedlock (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dougherty (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+52.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+44 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+52
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Shedlock is very likely to win: Shedlock wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Shedlock (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dougherty (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+56.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+44 to D+69
- Partisan lean
- D+52
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Michael J Dougherty
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.59 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10.2 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+52: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,615
- People per km²
- 589
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 17%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,326 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Deqa Abdi Dhalac (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
7,649 two-party votes · D+52.9 · D+54.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)76.5%
Donald Trump (R)23.5%
2022
3,644 votes · D+35.2✓ Deqa Dhalac (D)67.6%
Michael J Dougherty (R)32.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,605 votes · D+3.9✓ Richard A Evans (D)35.9%
Chad Richard Perkins (R)33.2%
Norman E Higgins (—)30.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,238 two-party votes · D+50.7 · D+46.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)75.4%
Donald Trump (R)24.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,541 two-party votes · D+33.1 · D+30.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.6%
Donald Trump (R)33.4%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.