DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 21
Rana is very likely to win: Rana wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Rana (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Casella (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+24.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rana is very likely to win: Rana wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Rana (D)
99%
chance of winning
Casella (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+23.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Frank Joseph Casella
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.17 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.96 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.96 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 11,697
- People per km²
- 503
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,268 votes · D+24.0✓ Ambureen Rana (D)54.5%
Reda H Edelman (R)33.4%
Colby Michael Lapointe (—)12.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,034 two-party votes · D+20.1 · D+21.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.0%
Donald Trump (R)40.0%
2022
3,219 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ambureen Rana (D)58.1%
Marianna H Reeves (I)41.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,671 votes · R+27.8✓ Heidi H Sampson (R)63.9%
Clifford T Krolick (D)36.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,058 two-party votes · D+22.2 · D+17.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)61.1%
Donald Trump (R)38.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,696 two-party votes · D+15.5 · D+13.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.8%
Donald Trump (R)42.2%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-20Dani O'HalloranPatrick A JudeFlip risk84%Dem.55%Dem. HD-22Laura D SupicaColleen T O'Neal>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-23Victoria P KornfieldBrian A Ames99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-24Sean F Faircloth—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-35Debora S FarnhamJames E Thorne>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-36Clifton Guy Foster IIIKimberly M HagganFlip risk79%Rep.52%Rep.