DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 89
Lee is very likely to win: Lee wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Lee (D)
98%
chance of winning
Berube (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+16.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lee is clearly favored to win: Lee wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Lee (D)
90%
chance of winning
Berube (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
James D Berube
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.01 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.66 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.66 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 6,826
- People per km²
- 1,387
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 67%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 8%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,063 votes · D+13.9✓ Adam R Lee (D)56.9%
John G Janelle (R)43.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
350 two-party votes · D+6.8 · D+8.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.4%
Donald Trump (R)46.6%
2022
2,356 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Adam R Lee (D)56.7%
Benjamin J Weisner (I)43.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,147 votes · D+8.2✓ Holly B Stover (D)54.1%
Stephanie Hawke (R)45.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
362 two-party votes · D+10.8 · D+6.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.4%
Donald Trump (R)44.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
307 two-party votes · Even · R+2.3 vs. the nationHillary Clinton (D)50.0%
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.0%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.