Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 72
Thomas is very likely to win: Thomas wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Soma-Hernandez (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Thomas (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+33.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+24
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Thomas is very likely to win: Thomas wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Soma-Hernandez (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Thomas (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+45 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Douglas Andrew Thomas
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.2 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -21.96 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,972
- People per km²
- 2
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 76%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,777 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Elizabeth M Caruso (R)72.7%
Cynthia J Soma-Hernandez (—)27.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,065 two-party votes · R+36.6 · R+35.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.3%
Kamala Harris (D)31.7%
2022
3,377 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Larry C Dunphy (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,076 votes · R+27.4✓ Kathleen Jackson Dillingham (R)63.7%
Jennifer Rebecca Blastow (D)36.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,010 two-party votes · R+32.1 · R+36.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.1%
Joe Biden (D)33.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,463 two-party votes · R+29.6 · R+31.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.2%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-1Dana M ApplebyAustin Theriault98%Rep.92%Rep. HD-30John J Contreni Jr.James L White>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-32—Shawn L Lancaster>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-33Michael A BraysonKenneth Wade Fredette>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-66—Michael D Perkins>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-69Jessica B BlanchardDean A Cray>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-71Allison Mary PerkinsJohn E Ducharme III99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-73Daniel J SimondsMichael Soboleski97%Rep.87%Rep. HD-74Marc EdwardsRussell J Black98%Rep.92%Rep.