Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 39
Cook is very likely to win: Cook wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Cook (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Nicholson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+32
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Cook is very likely to win: Cook wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Cook (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Nicholson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+21 to D+46
- Partisan lean
- D+32
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Michael J Nicholson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.06 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+32: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 11,639
- People per km²
- 51
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,721 votes · D+35.2✓ Janice S Dodge (D)67.6%
Stephen J Hemenway (R)32.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,795 two-party votes · D+31.8 · D+33.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)65.9%
Donald Trump (R)34.1%
2022
4,995 votes · D+37.1✓ Janice S Dodge (D)68.5%
Stephen J Hemenway (R)31.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,259 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Michael Sylvester (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,807 two-party votes · D+31.4 · D+26.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)65.7%
Donald Trump (R)34.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,066 two-party votes · D+23.6 · D+21.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.8%
Donald Trump (R)38.2%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.