Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 109
Siegel is very likely to win: Siegel wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Siegel (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Kushnar (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+21.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+13 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Siegel is very likely to win: Siegel wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Siegel (D)
99%
chance of winning
Kushnar (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+23.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Diana Kushnar
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.37 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.75 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,076
- People per km²
- 49
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 14%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,847 votes · D+13.0✓ Eleanor Y Sato (D)56.5%
Alan R Livingston (R)43.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,279 two-party votes · D+20.6 · D+22.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.3%
Donald Trump (R)39.7%
2022
4,905 votes · D+21.5✓ James Allen Boyle (D)60.7%
Joseph Edwards Velozo (R)39.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,416 votes · D+35.5✓ Bruce A White (D)67.8%
Richard Andrew Foss Jr (R)32.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,907 two-party votes · D+23.6 · D+19.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)61.8%
Donald Trump (R)38.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,398 two-party votes · D+12.6 · D+10.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.3%
Donald Trump (R)43.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.