Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 63
Flynn is clearly favored to win: Flynn wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
West (D)
10%
chance of winning
Flynn (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+9.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flynn is clearly favored to win: Flynn wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
West (D)
19%
chance of winning
Flynn (R)
81%
- Average margin
- R+8.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Paul R Flynn
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.45 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.74 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,263
- People per km²
- 36
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 68%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,442 votes · R+19.9✓ Paul R Flynn (R)60.0%
Lee A Trahan (D)40.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,169 two-party votes · R+12.2 · R+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.1%
Kamala Harris (D)43.9%
2022
3,724 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Scott Wynn Cyrway (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,005 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bruce A Bickford (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,075 two-party votes · R+9.9 · R+14.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Joe Biden (D)45.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,263 two-party votes · R+12.9 · R+15.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.6%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-38Kayla M.T. MillerBenjamin C Hymes88%Rep.82%Rep. HD-40D. Michael RayJoseph M McLaughlin96%Dem.90%Dem. HD-61Robin G CrawleyAlicia Carol Collins97%Rep.93%Rep. HD-62Pamela Jo SwiftKatrina J Smith99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-64Flavia M DebritoShawn M Packard>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-65Cassie Lynn JuliaScott Walter Strom>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-67Matthew C TownsendShawn M Dixon92%Rep.95%Rep. HD-68—Amanda Noelle Collamore>99%Rep.>99%Rep.