Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 40
Ray is very likely to win: Ray wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Ray (D)
96%
chance of winning
McLaughlin (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+13.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ray is clearly favored to win: Ray wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Ray (D)
90%
chance of winning
McLaughlin (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+12.7
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Joseph M McLaughlin
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.55 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,245
- People per km²
- 13
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 94%
- Hispanic 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,814 votes · D+8.1✓ D Michael Ray (D)54.1%
Joseph M McLaughlin (R)45.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,870 two-party votes · D+11.0 · D+12.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%
2022
5,001 votes · D+17.1✓ Stanley Paige Zeigler Jr (D)58.5%
Joseph M McLaughlin (R)41.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
3,885 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Rachel Talbot Ross (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,700 two-party votes · D+12.1 · D+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,957 two-party votes · D+8.4 · D+6.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.2%
Donald Trump (R)45.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-15Holly R Eaton—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-16Nina Azella MillikenEric M White>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-37Alan Lee OrcuttReagan L Paul78%Rep.66%Rep. HD-38Kayla M.T. MillerBenjamin C Hymes88%Rep.82%Rep. HD-39Madison Crissey CookMichael J Nicholson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-41Joshua D GerritsenCory Christopher Raymond>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-42Valli D GeigerMelissa Joy Byer>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-44—Ray A Thombs Jr.>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-45—Rebecca M Stephens>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-62Pamela Jo SwiftKatrina J Smith99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-63Taylor Marie WestPaul R Flynn90%Rep.81%Rep.