Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 75
Landry is clearly favored to win: Landry wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Landry (D)
85%
chance of winning
Gauvin (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+7.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Landry is clearly favored to win: Landry wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Landry (D)
84%
chance of winning
Gauvin (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+9.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Randall D Gauvin
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.97 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.68 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 11,104
- People per km²
- 46
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 61%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,590 votes · R+0.2✓ Randall D Gauvin (R)50.1%
Stephan M Bunker (D)49.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,667 two-party votes · D+6.6 · D+8.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.3%
Donald Trump (R)46.7%
2022
3,836 votes · D+30.4✓ H Scott Landry (D)65.2%
Tiffany E Estabrook (R)34.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,333 votes · R+10.5✓ Joshua K Morris (R)55.3%
John M Nutting (D)44.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,572 two-party votes · D+12.2 · D+7.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.1%
Donald Trump (R)43.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,136 two-party votes · D+10.0 · D+7.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.0%
Donald Trump (R)45.0%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.