Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 19
Campbell is very likely to win: Campbell wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Ulrich (D)
2%
chance of winning
Campbell (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+18.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Campbell is clearly favored to win: Campbell wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Ulrich (D)
7%
chance of winning
Campbell (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+14.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Richard H Campbell
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,539
- People per km²
- 47
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,506 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Richard H Campbell (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,154 two-party votes · R+16.8 · R+15.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Kamala Harris (D)41.6%
2022
4,035 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Richard H Campbell (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,588 votes · R+14.5✓ Matthew Allen Harrington (R)57.2%
Patricia E Kidder (D)42.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,005 two-party votes · R+17.1 · R+21.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Joe Biden (D)41.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,276 two-party votes · R+22.3 · R+24.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-17Ronald B RussellSteven Matthew BishopFlip riskFlip risk58%Dem.57%Dem. HD-18Jonathan C GobleMathew David McIntyre>99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-20Dani O'HalloranPatrick A JudeFlip risk84%Dem.55%Dem. HD-24Sean F Faircloth—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-25Laurie OsherAnthony M Weaver>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-26James F DillEdward L Paradis97%Dem.89%Dem. HD-36Clifton Guy Foster IIIKimberly M HagganFlip risk79%Rep.52%Rep. HD-37Alan Lee OrcuttReagan L Paul78%Rep.66%Rep.