Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 61
Collins is very likely to win: Collins wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Crawley (D)
3%
chance of winning
Collins (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Collins is clearly favored to win: Collins wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Crawley (D)
7%
chance of winning
Collins (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Alicia Carol Collins
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.05 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.05 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,382
- People per km²
- 40
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,473 votes · R+19.1✓ Alicia Carol Collins (R)59.5%
Laura M Jones (D)40.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,509 two-party votes · R+18.4 · R+16.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.2%
Kamala Harris (D)40.8%
2022
4,562 votes · R+24.2✓ Richard T Bradstreet (R)62.1%
Amy J Davidoff (D)37.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
2,444 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Heidi Eileen Brooks (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,188 two-party votes · R+14.9 · R+19.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Joe Biden (D)42.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,460 two-party votes · R+19.4 · R+21.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.3%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-55Maureen AucoinCharles L Hippler IV93%Dem.84%Dem. HD-58—Dexter E. Bridges Jr.>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-59Katrina Couch Ray-SaulisJohn Reny95%Dem.92%Dem. HD-60William R BridgeoWyatt Albert Beaulieu98%Dem.92%Dem. HD-62Pamela Jo SwiftKatrina J Smith99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-63Taylor Marie WestPaul R Flynn90%Rep.81%Rep. HD-65Cassie Lynn JuliaScott Walter Strom>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-66—Michael D Perkins>99%Rep.>99%Rep.