Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 78
Henderson is favored to win: Henderson wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Hughes (D)
26%
chance of winning
Henderson (R)
74%
- Average margin
- R+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (42% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Hughes (D)
42%
chance of winning
Henderson (R)
58%
- Average margin
- R+1.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Rachel A Henderson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.09 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.89 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 12,309
- People per km²
- 19
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 72%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,926 votes · R+16.2✓ Rachel A Henderson (R)58.1%
Eric Lee Giroux (D)41.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,020 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Kamala Harris (D)47.3%
2022
4,196 votes · R+9.9✓ Rachel Ann Henderson (R)54.9%
David P Thurston (D)45.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,982 votes · R+11.7✓ Cathy R Nadeau (R)55.8%
Raymond R Caron (D)44.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,840 two-party votes · R+2.8 · R+7.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.4%
Joe Biden (D)48.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,239 two-party votes · R+5.6 · R+7.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.2%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.