Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 142
Hanselmann is clearly favored to win: Hanselmann wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Hanselmann (D)
88%
chance of winning
Frohloff (R)
12%
- Average margin
- D+8.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hanselmann is clearly favored to win: Hanselmann wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Hanselmann (D)
84%
chance of winning
Frohloff (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+9.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Gordon E Frohloff
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.3 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,818
- People per km²
- 458
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 71%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,797 votes · D+1.4✓ Anne-Marie Mastraccio (D)50.7%
Amy C Bell (R)49.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
1,467 two-party votes · R+1.2 · D+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Kamala Harris (D)49.4%
2022
2,797 votes · D+6.9✓ Annemarie Mastraccio (D)53.5%
Pamela Diane Buck (R)46.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,276 votes · R+44.9✓ Jeffery A Gifford (R)72.4%
Natalie D Dipentino (D)27.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
3,671 two-party votes · D+7.5 · D+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.7%
Donald Trump (R)46.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
2,815 two-party votes · R+0.2 · R+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.9%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.