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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

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Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Maine House District 33

Fredette is very likely to win: Fredette wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Brayson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fredette (R)
>99%
Average margin
R+33.8
80% of outcomes
R+44 to R+25
Partisan lean
R+37
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Fredette is very likely to win: Fredette wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Brayson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fredette (R)
>99%
Average margin
R+33.4
80% of outcomes
R+46 to R+21
Partisan lean
R+37
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Statewide map: Maine House of Representatives

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+33.8R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
R+33.4R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Brayson <1%Fredette >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Brayson <1%Fredette >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Maine state offices
+0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
New England adjustment
−2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe New England adjustmentR+30.5Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+33.4Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Maine and look-alikeplacesR+34.0Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+33.8Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+33.4

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.1
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-20.02
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-20.02

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean R+37: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+34.1R+36.3 vs. nation2020 presidentR+34.2R+38.8 vs. nation2024 presidentR+38.5R+37.0 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
7,861
People per km²
18
Adults with a B.A.+
21%
White, no degree
75%of adults
  • White 95%
  • Black 1%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

4,293 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Kenneth Wade Fredette (R)100.0%

2024 President Vote in this district

5,269 two-party votes · R+38.5 · R+37.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)69.2%
Kamala Harris (D)30.8%

2022

4,166 votes · R+43.4
✓ Danny E Costain (R)71.7%
Donovan E Todd III (D)28.3%

2020 Earlier district lines

3,813 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Victoria Morales (D)100.0%

2020 President Vote in this district

5,094 two-party votes · R+34.2 · R+38.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)67.1%
Joe Biden (D)32.9%

2016 President Vote in this district

4,578 two-party votes · R+34.1 · R+36.3 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)67.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)32.9%

Also on the ballot in Maine

  • RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
U.S. SenateTroy JacksonSusan CollinsD flipD flip68%Dem.76%Dem. GovernorHannah PingreeRobert B. Charles98%Dem.97%Dem.

Neighboring districts

HD-32—Shawn L Lancaster>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-35Debora S FarnhamJames E Thorne>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-36Clifton Guy Foster IIIKimberly M HagganFlip risk79%Rep.52%Rep. HD-38Kayla M.T. MillerBenjamin C Hymes88%Rep.82%Rep. HD-68—Amanda Noelle Collamore>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-69Jessica B BlanchardDean A Cray>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-72Cynthia J Soma-HernandezDouglas Andrew Thomas>99%Rep.>99%Rep.