DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 20
O'Halloran is clearly favored to win: O'Halloran wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
O'Halloran (D)
84%
chance of winning
Jude (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+7.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (45% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
O'Halloran (D)
55%
chance of winning
Jude (R)
45%
- Average margin
- D+1.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Patrick A Jude
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.77 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.74 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,652
- People per km²
- 245
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,992 votes · D+2.2✓ Dani L O'Halloran (D)51.1%
Patrick Jude (R)48.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,011 two-party votes · R+1.3 · D+0.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Kamala Harris (D)49.4%
2022
4,053 votes · D+1.2✓ Kevin J M Oconnell (D)50.6%
Jennifer Marie Morin (R)49.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,474 votes · R+24.7✓ Theodore J Kryzak Jr (R)62.3%
Daniel J Lauzon (D)37.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,982 two-party votes · R+0.3 · R+4.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Joe Biden (D)49.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,632 two-party votes · R+8.5 · R+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.