Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 9
Mingo is clearly favored to win: Mingo wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Richards (D)
10%
chance of winning
Mingo (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+9.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mingo is favored to win: Mingo wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Richards (D)
25%
chance of winning
Mingo (R)
75%
- Average margin
- R+6.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Arthur K Mingo
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -13.1 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -13.1 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,616
- People per km²
- 10
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 11%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,601 votes · R+24.4✓ Arthur Kevin Mingo (R)62.2%
Darin L McGaw (D)37.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,686 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Kamala Harris (D)45.0%
2022
3,662 votes · D+5.7✓ Anne C Perry (D)52.8%
John Victor Chambers (R)47.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,911 votes · D+16.1✓ Traci Gere (D)58.1%
H Stedman Seavey (R)41.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,547 two-party votes · R+4.5 · R+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.3%
Joe Biden (D)47.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,149 two-party votes · R+4.3 · R+6.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.9%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.