Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 137
Carlow is favored to win: Carlow wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Tilburg (D)
22%
chance of winning
Carlow (R)
78%
- Average margin
- R+5.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carlow is favored to win: Carlow wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Tilburg (D)
30%
chance of winning
Carlow (R)
70%
- Average margin
- R+4.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Nathan M Carlow
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.25 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -7.07 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 13,384
- People per km²
- 96
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,720 votes · R+17.2✓ Nathan M Carlow (R)58.6%
Elizabeth Jane Gleason (D)41.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,092 two-party votes · R+8.1 · R+6.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.0%
Kamala Harris (D)46.0%
2022
4,810 votes · R+14.6✓ Nathan M Carlow (R)57.3%
Robert W Faucher (D)42.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,602 votes · R+32.3✓ Meldon H Carmichael (R)66.1%
Maxwell G Coolidge (D)33.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,939 two-party votes · R+6.1 · R+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.1%
Joe Biden (D)46.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,096 two-party votes · R+13.9 · R+16.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.1%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.