Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 138
Kinney is very likely to win: Kinney wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
McAvoy (D)
5%
chance of winning
Kinney (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+12.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kinney is clearly favored to win: Kinney wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
McAvoy (D)
11%
chance of winning
Kinney (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+11.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jonathan Lee Kinney
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.59 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,017
- People per km²
- 18
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 82%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 18%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,473 votes · R+28.4✓ Mark John Blier (R)52.7%
Michael Anthony McKinney (D)29.4%
Michael Thomas Barden (—)17.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,459 two-party votes · R+15.9 · R+14.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.0%
Kamala Harris (D)42.0%
2022
4,344 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mark John Blier (R)56.0%
Michael Thomas Barden III (I)44.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,827 votes · D+14.4✓ Robert W Alley Sr (D)57.2%
Kimberley Florence Robinson (R)42.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,164 two-party votes · R+13.3 · R+17.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Joe Biden (D)43.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,356 two-party votes · R+18.2 · R+20.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.9%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-82Christopher Alfred LeweyCaleb J NessFlip risk69%Rep.54%Rep. HD-84Cassandra Anne DoveMark Walker98%Rep.93%Rep. HD-85Paul Harris WelchAdrienne Paul80%Rep.64%Rep. HD-108Parnell W TerryKelly L Dearborn>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-136Michelle K ConnersJohn Eder80%Rep.75%Rep. HD-137Charles TilburgNathan M Carlow78%Rep.70%Rep. HD-139Dean P LepageJamie K Newton93%Rep.87%Rep.