Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 82
Ness is favored to win: Ness wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Lewey (D)
31%
chance of winning
Ness (R)
69%
- Average margin
- R+3.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Lewey (D)
46%
chance of winning
Ness (R)
54%
- Average margin
- R+0.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Caleb J Ness
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 13,052
- People per km²
- 22
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 68%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,510 votes · R+16.0✓ Nathan J Wadsworth (R)58.0%
Nichole Sekera (D)42.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,747 two-party votes · R+3.7 · R+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.9%
Kamala Harris (D)48.1%
2022
4,497 votes · R+1.1✓ Caleb Joshua Ness (R)50.6%
Nathan Robert Burnett (D)49.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,365 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Randall Adam Greenwood (R)50.5%
Kent F Ackley (—)49.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,343 two-party votes · R+0.6 · R+5.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Joe Biden (D)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,530 two-party votes · R+7.8 · R+10.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.1%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.