DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 26
Dill is very likely to win: Dill wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Dill (D)
97%
chance of winning
Paradis (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Dill is clearly favored to win: Dill wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Dill (D)
89%
chance of winning
Paradis (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+11.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Edward L Paradis
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.68 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.52 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.52 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 12,680
- People per km²
- 42
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,086 votes · D+15.3✓ James F Dill (D)57.6%
Christina M Ouellette (R)42.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,487 two-party votes · D+8.0 · D+9.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
2022
4,054 votes · D+18.7✓ James F Dill (D)59.4%
Christina M Ouellette (R)40.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,096 votes · D+14.9✓ Maureen F Terry (D)57.5%
George L Vercelli (R)42.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,424 two-party votes · D+13.4 · D+8.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.7%
Donald Trump (R)43.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,764 two-party votes · D+11.2 · D+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-8—Tracy Lynn Quint>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-18Jonathan C GobleMathew David McIntyre>99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-19David UlrichRichard H Campbell98%Rep.93%Rep. HD-24Sean F Faircloth—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-25Laurie OsherAnthony M Weaver>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-27Devan C ArnoldDavid Giles>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-28Gordon P StreetIrene A Gifford>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-29Nancy Marie McDowellNancy J Theriault99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-34James P McClymerStacey K Guerin>99%Rep.99%Rep.