Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 6
Ardell is very likely to win: Ardell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Tompkins (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Ardell (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+33.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+24
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ardell is very likely to win: Ardell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Tompkins (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Ardell (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+37.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+51 to R+25
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Donald James Ardell
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.08 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 13.37 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 13.37 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,025
- People per km²
- 3
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 74%of adults
- White 94%
- Hispanic 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,756 votes · R+31.4✓ Donald James Ardell (R)65.7%
Melanie A Tompkins (D)34.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,864 two-party votes · R+43.5 · R+42.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.7%
Kamala Harris (D)28.3%
2022
3,293 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Donald J Ardell (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,605 votes · D+11.9✓ Tiffany Danielle Roberts (D)56.0%
Burnell W Bailey (R)44.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,947 two-party votes · R+38.3 · R+42.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.1%
Joe Biden (D)30.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,580 two-party votes · R+40.1 · R+42.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.0%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-1Dana M ApplebyAustin Theriault98%Rep.92%Rep. HD-2Roland Daniel MartinRoger C Albert66%Rep.64%Rep. HD-3David H McCreaSusan Bernard94%Rep.96%Rep. HD-4—Timothy Conrad Guerrette>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-5Bruce ArcherDouglas C Carlisle Jr.74%Rep.73%Rep. HD-7Matthew J RushJantzen Stephen Craine>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-8—Tracy Lynn Quint>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-29Nancy Marie McDowellNancy J Theriault99%Rep.98%Rep.