Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 31
Torbett is very likely to win: Torbett wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Boothroyd (D)
1%
chance of winning
Torbett (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+21.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Torbett is very likely to win: Torbett wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Boothroyd (D)
1%
chance of winning
Torbett (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+25.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+13
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Andrew R Torbett
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.97 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,041
- People per km²
- 11
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,705 votes · R+25.4✓ Chad R Perkins (R)62.7%
Joseph Thomas Brown (D)37.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,891 two-party votes · R+28.8 · R+27.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.4%
Kamala Harris (D)35.6%
2022
3,851 votes · R+9.4✓ Chad Richard Perkins (R)54.7%
Richard A Evans (D)45.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,921 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lois Galgay Reckitt (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,119 two-party votes · R+24.8 · R+29.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.4%
Joe Biden (D)37.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,949 two-party votes · R+22.8 · R+25.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.6%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.