DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 51
Macias is very likely to win: Macias wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Macias (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Sarvinas (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+28.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+19 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Macias is very likely to win: Macias wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Macias (D)
99%
chance of winning
Sarvinas (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+28.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Annalyse O Sarvinas
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.85 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.85 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,706
- People per km²
- 139
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 50%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,783 votes · D+21.0✓ Rafael Leo Macias (D)60.5%
Leon C Brillant (R)39.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,845 two-party votes · D+28.2 · D+29.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)64.1%
Donald Trump (R)35.9%
2022
5,222 votes · D+18.1✓ Rebecca L Jauch (D)59.0%
Linda L Baker (R)41.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,368 votes · D+16.4✓ Joyce McCreight (D)58.2%
Stephen Warner Davis (R)41.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,822 two-party votes · D+24.9 · D+20.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.5%
Donald Trump (R)37.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,131 two-party votes · D+14.7 · D+12.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-50David A SinclairJedediah James Rice II>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-52Sally Jeane ClucheyDavid W GuilmetteFlip risk64%Dem.56%Rep. HD-98Kilton McCarthy WebbWilliam J St. Michel96%Dem.87%Dem. HD-99Cheryl A GolekBraeden D Webber>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-100Daniel Joseph AnkelesBrett Y Barrett>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-101Poppy T ArfordRavi Jackson>99%Dem.>99%Dem.