DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 42
Geiger is very likely to win: Geiger wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Geiger (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Byer (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Geiger is very likely to win: Geiger wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Geiger (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Byer (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Melissa Joy Byer
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.8 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.54 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.54 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,035
- People per km²
- 7
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 94%
- Hispanic 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,890 votes · D+21.2✓ Valli D Geiger (D)60.6%
Jamie L Hopkins (R)39.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,946 two-party votes · D+29.8 · D+31.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)64.9%
Donald Trump (R)35.1%
2022
4,238 votes · D+30.9✓ Valli D Geiger (D)65.5%
Roger V Tranfaglia (R)34.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,144 votes · D+52.5✓ Benjamin T Collings (D)67.8%
Susan M Abercrombie (R)21.2%
Carolyn Anne Silvius (—)11.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,157 two-party votes · D+27.9 · D+23.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.0%
Donald Trump (R)36.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,221 two-party votes · D+23.8 · D+21.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.9%
Donald Trump (R)38.1%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.