DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 57
Hasenfus is very likely to win: Hasenfus wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hasenfus (D)
95%
chance of winning
Potvin (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+13.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hasenfus is favored to win: Hasenfus wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Hasenfus (D)
77%
chance of winning
Potvin (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+6.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
David R Potvin
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 15.14 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 15.14 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,842
- People per km²
- 50
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,478 votes · D+17.5✓ Tavis Rock Hasenfus (D)58.8%
Donna L Piccininni (R)41.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,581 two-party votes · D+3.7 · D+5.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.9%
Donald Trump (R)48.1%
2022
4,888 votes · D+7.7✓ Tavis Hasenfus (D)53.8%
Corey S Wilson (R)46.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,283 votes · R+28.7✓ Thomas H Martin Jr (R)64.4%
Patricia A Fogg (D)35.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,410 two-party votes · D+8.6 · D+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,813 two-party votes · D+3.8 · D+1.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.9%
Donald Trump (R)48.1%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.