Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 90
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (76%).
Hart is favored to win: Hart wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Hart (D)
76%
chance of winning
Sorcek (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+5.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (67%).
Hart is favored to win: Hart wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Hart (D)
67%
chance of winning
Sorcek (R)
33%
- Average margin
- D+3.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
James W Sorcek
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.4 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 15,233
- People per km²
- 104
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 67%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,475 votes · R+3.2✓ Laurel D Libby (R)51.6%
Daniel E Campbell (D)48.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,755 two-party votes · R+1.3 · D+0.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Kamala Harris (D)49.4%
2022
3,074 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Laurel D Libby (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,200 votes · D+29.8✓ Lydia V Crafts (D)64.9%
Merle James Parise Jr (R)35.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,726 two-party votes · D+6.8 · D+2.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.4%
Donald Trump (R)46.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,918 two-party votes · R+2.1 · R+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.0%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-80—Ernest M Fitts IV>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-87—David Wayne Boyer Jr.>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-88Dana N StaplesQuentin James ChapmanD flipD flip75%Dem.83%Dem. HD-89Adam R LeeJames D Berube98%Dem.90%Dem. HD-91Emily J DingmanJeffrey L Timberlake99%Rep.93%Rep. HD-92—Stephen J Wood>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-93Julia McCabeChad E Syphers99%Dem.96%Dem.