Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 146
Runte is very likely to win: Runte wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Runte (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Moulton (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+23.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Runte is very likely to win: Runte wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Runte (D)
99%
chance of winning
Moulton (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+27.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+40
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Bradley S Moulton
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -11.68 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,851
- People per km²
- 46
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 56%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 3%
- Other / multiracial 1%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,965 votes · D+11.4✓ Walter Gerard Runte (D)55.7%
Bradley S Moulton (R)44.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,190 two-party votes · D+25.4 · D+26.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.7%
Donald Trump (R)37.3%
2022
5,190 votes · D+16.0✓ Walter Gerard Runte Jr (D)58.0%
Bradley S Moulton (R)42.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,004 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dustin M White (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,084 two-party votes · D+26.2 · D+21.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.1%
Donald Trump (R)36.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,015 two-party votes · D+18.5 · D+16.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.2%
Donald Trump (R)40.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-134Traci Gere—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-135Lisa Joy Pratt—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-145Kristin T DavisCaleb J ChaseD flipD flip98%Dem.94%Dem. HD-147Holly T Sargent—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-149Mallory A CookTimothy R Towne98%Dem.94%Dem. HD-150Alexandros OrestisMark F Zimmer>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-151Kristi M MathiesonSuzanne Johnson>99%Dem.>99%Dem.