Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 77
Schmersal-Burgess is very likely to win: Schmersal-Burgess wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hetrick (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Schmersal-Burgess (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Schmersal-Burgess is very likely to win: Schmersal-Burgess wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Hetrick (D)
1%
chance of winning
Schmersal-Burgess (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+23.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Tammy L Schmersal-Burgess
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.3 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -30.87 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,151
- People per km²
- 14
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 72%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,992 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tammy L Schmersal-Burgess (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,966 two-party votes · R+27.9 · R+26.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.0%
Kamala Harris (D)36.0%
2022
4,048 votes · R+33.1✓ Tammy L Schmersal-Burgess (R)66.6%
Bonita L Bishop (D)33.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,384 votes · R+35.8✓ Michael Dana Perkins (R)67.9%
Marion Suzanne Menair (D)32.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,902 two-party votes · R+22.4 · R+27.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Joe Biden (D)38.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,408 two-party votes · R+20.8 · R+23.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.6%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-74Marc EdwardsRussell J Black98%Rep.92%Rep. HD-76Trevor Alex DoironSheila Ann Lyman96%Rep.90%Rep. HD-78Woodleigh H HughesRachel A HendersonFlip risk74%Rep.58%Rep. HD-79Brianna Fern LueckMichael J Lance99%Rep.94%Rep. HD-80—Ernest M Fitts IV>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-91Emily J DingmanJeffrey L Timberlake99%Rep.93%Rep.