Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 149
Cook is very likely to win: Cook wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Cook (D)
98%
chance of winning
Towne (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+16.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Cook is clearly favored to win: Cook wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Cook (D)
94%
chance of winning
Towne (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+15.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Timothy R Towne
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.93 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,917
- People per km²
- 36
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 94%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,662 votes · D+12.5✓ Tiffany Danielle Roberts (D)56.2%
Kelly A Davis-Rouillard (R)43.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,042 two-party votes · D+13.2 · D+14.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.6%
Donald Trump (R)43.4%
2022
4,593 votes · D+12.0✓ Tiffany Danielle Roberts (D)56.0%
Mark A Rouillard (R)44.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
3,672 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Susan Bernard (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,926 two-party votes · D+16.9 · D+12.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.5%
Donald Trump (R)41.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,214 two-party votes · D+10.1 · D+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.1%
Donald Trump (R)44.9%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-143John R HenkelmanEric H SmallFlip riskFlip risk52%Dem.56%Dem. HD-145Kristin T DavisCaleb J ChaseD flipD flip98%Dem.94%Dem. HD-146Walter Gerard Runte Jr.Bradley S Moulton>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-148Margaret A WheelerThomas Arthur Lavigne82%Rep.67%Rep. HD-150Alexandros OrestisMark F Zimmer>99%Dem.98%Dem.