Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 112
Projected flip: Independent-held seat, Democrats favored (100%).
Mahoney is very likely to win: Mahoney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mahoney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Jones (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+48.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+40 to D+59
- Partisan lean
- D+52
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Independent-held seat, Democrats favored (100%).
Mahoney is very likely to win: Mahoney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mahoney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Jones (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+55.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+43 to D+69
- Partisan lean
- D+52
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Lauren Chelsea Jones
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.9 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.45 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+52: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 6,162
- People per km²
- 340
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 62%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 6%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,789 votes · D+43.0✓ W Edward Crockett (D)71.5%
Steven Alan Wolejko (R)28.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
2,461 two-party votes · D+55.2 · D+56.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)77.6%
Donald Trump (R)22.4%
2022
5,252 votes · D+43.5✓ W Edward Crockett (D)71.7%
Tammy Ryan (R)28.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,079 votes · R+29.4✓ Thomas H Skolfield (R)64.7%
Peter M Bourgelais (D)35.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
3,711 two-party votes · D+42.4 · D+37.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)71.2%
Donald Trump (R)28.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,364 two-party votes · D+35.6 · D+33.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.8%
Donald Trump (R)32.2%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.