Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 141
Boisse is favored to win: Boisse wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Andrews (D)
32%
chance of winning
Boisse (R)
68%
- Average margin
- R+3.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Boisse is favored to win: Boisse wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Andrews (D)
22%
chance of winning
Boisse (R)
78%
- Average margin
- R+7.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Marc A Boisse
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 13 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,162
- People per km²
- 44
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 68%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,940 votes · R+0.1✓ Lucas John Lanigan (R)50.1%
Patricia E Kidder (D)49.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,208 two-party votes · R+11.4 · R+9.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Kamala Harris (D)44.3%
2022
3,979 votes · R+11.4✓ Lucas John Lanigan (R)55.7%
John M McAdam (D)44.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,368 votes · R+55.7✓ Kathy Javner (R)77.8%
Donald M Green (D)22.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,605 two-party votes · R+8.0 · R+12.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.0%
Joe Biden (D)46.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,901 two-party votes · R+13.2 · R+15.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.4%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-136Michelle K ConnersJohn Eder80%Rep.75%Rep. HD-139Dean P LepageJamie K Newton93%Rep.87%Rep. HD-142Ayn M HanselmannGordon E Frohloff88%Dem.84%Dem. HD-143John R HenkelmanEric H SmallFlip riskFlip risk52%Dem.56%Dem. HD-144—Jeffrey Sean Adams>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-148Margaret A WheelerThomas Arthur Lavigne82%Rep.67%Rep.