Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 79
Lance is very likely to win: Lance wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Lueck (D)
1%
chance of winning
Lance (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+19.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lance is clearly favored to win: Lance wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Lueck (D)
6%
chance of winning
Lance (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+15.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Michael J Lance
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.14 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -39.92 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,139
- People per km²
- 22
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 94%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,116 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Michael J Lance (R)53.5%
Charlotte Nutt (—)46.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,423 two-party votes · R+19.2 · R+17.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.6%
Kamala Harris (D)40.4%
2022
3,191 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ John E Andrews (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,916 votes · R+33.0✓ Timothy S Theriault (R)66.5%
Lindsey Danielle Harwath (D)33.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,942 two-party votes · R+12.6 · R+17.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.3%
Joe Biden (D)43.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,476 two-party votes · R+17.3 · R+19.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.4%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.