Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 49
Vellella is very likely to win: Vellella wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Vellella (D)
97%
chance of winning
Andresen (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+13.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Vellella is clearly favored to win: Vellella wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Vellella (D)
89%
chance of winning
Andresen (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+11.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Suzanne R Andresen
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 14.58 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,868
- People per km²
- 17
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,329 votes · D+22.2✓ Allison Lee Hepler (D)61.1%
Vincent E Brown (R)38.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,379 two-party votes · D+10.7 · D+12.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.4%
Donald Trump (R)44.6%
2022
5,680 votes · D+15.1✓ Allison L Hepler (D)57.6%
Kelly James (R)42.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,394 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Poppy Arford (D)51.9%
K Frederick Horch (—)48.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,229 two-party votes · D+8.7 · D+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.4%
Donald Trump (R)45.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,301 two-party votes · D+0.4 · R+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-47Wayne K FarrinChester B Grover IIIFlip risk77%Dem.51%Rep. HD-48Charlotte NuttErik D Hobson>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-50David A SinclairJedediah James Rice II>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-52Sally Jeane ClucheyDavid W GuilmetteFlip risk64%Dem.56%Rep. HD-53Richard Marc GoldmanMichael H Lemelin95%Rep.92%Rep. HD-99Cheryl A GolekBraeden D Webber>99%Dem.>99%Dem.