Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 29
Theriault is very likely to win: Theriault wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McDowell (D)
1%
chance of winning
Theriault (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+21.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Theriault is very likely to win: Theriault wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
McDowell (D)
2%
chance of winning
Theriault (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+24.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Nancy J Theriault
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.7 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,819
- People per km²
- 3
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 80%of adults
- White 97%
- Hispanic 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,105 votes · R+22.1✓ Kathy Irene Javner (R)61.0%
Laurie E York (D)39.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,482 two-party votes · R+28.9 · R+27.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.5%
Kamala Harris (D)35.5%
2022
4,348 votes · R+17.2✓ Kathy Irene Javner (R)58.6%
Laurie E York (D)41.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,744 votes · D+11.5✓ Sophia B Warren (—)38.0%
Shawn A Babine (D)34.6%
Annalee Z Rosenblatt (R)27.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,321 two-party votes · R+26.0 · R+30.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.0%
Joe Biden (D)37.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,764 two-party votes · R+24.5 · R+26.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-1Dana M ApplebyAustin Theriault98%Rep.92%Rep. HD-6Melanie TompkinsDonald James Ardell>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-8—Tracy Lynn Quint>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-26James F DillEdward L Paradis97%Dem.89%Dem. HD-28Gordon P StreetIrene A Gifford>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-30John J Contreni Jr.James L White>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-31Eric J BoothroydAndrew R Torbett99%Rep.99%Rep.