Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 145
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (98%).
Davis is very likely to win: Davis wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Davis (D)
98%
chance of winning
Chase (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+15.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (94%).
Davis is clearly favored to win: Davis wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Davis (D)
94%
chance of winning
Chase (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+15.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Caleb J Chase
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -15.31 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,500
- People per km²
- 76
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 6%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,752 votes · R+4.4✓ Robert Alan Foley (R)52.2%
James Nelson Smith (D)47.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,962 two-party votes · D+13.0 · D+14.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.5%
Donald Trump (R)43.5%
2022
5,357 votes · D+3.3✓ Daniel J Hobbs (D)51.7%
Timothy M Roche (R)48.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,542 votes · R+53.4✓ Chris A Johansen (R)76.7%
Robert Alvah Zabierek (D)23.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,660 two-party votes · D+14.9 · D+10.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.5%
Donald Trump (R)42.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,407 two-party votes · D+8.0 · D+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.