Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 76
Lyman is very likely to win: Lyman wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Doiron (D)
4%
chance of winning
Lyman (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+13.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lyman is clearly favored to win: Lyman wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Doiron (D)
10%
chance of winning
Lyman (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+12.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Sheila Ann Lyman
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.17 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.33 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -9.33 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,627
- People per km²
- 37
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 74%of adults
- White 98%
- Other / multiracial 1%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,128 votes · R+27.4✓ Sheila A Lyman (R)63.7%
Tamara Hoke (D)36.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,132 two-party votes · R+16.9 · R+15.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Kamala Harris (D)41.6%
2022
4,237 votes · R+19.3✓ Sheila A Lyman (R)59.6%
Tamara N Hoke (D)40.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,074 votes · R+4.2✓ Daniel J Newman (R)52.1%
Deborah Foss Emery (D)47.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,068 two-party votes · R+11.4 · R+15.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Joe Biden (D)44.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,575 two-party votes · R+8.6 · R+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.