DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 65
Julia is very likely to win: Julia wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Julia (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Strom (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+28.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Julia is very likely to win: Julia wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Julia (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Strom (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+19 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Scott Walter Strom
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.93 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.18 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 12,774
- People per km²
- 589
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 61%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,875 votes · D+17.3✓ Cassie Lynn Julia (D)58.6%
Tammy Brown (R)41.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,307 two-party votes · D+26.8 · D+28.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)63.4%
Donald Trump (R)36.6%
2022
3,047 votes · D+34.4✓ Bruce A White (D)67.2%
Tammy Brown (R)32.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,423 votes · R+18.4✓ Amy B Arata (R)59.2%
Misty L Coolidge (D)40.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,610 two-party votes · D+31.7 · D+27.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)65.8%
Donald Trump (R)34.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,969 two-party votes · D+26.8 · D+24.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)63.4%
Donald Trump (R)36.6%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.