Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 1
Theriault is very likely to win: Theriault wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Appleby (D)
2%
chance of winning
Theriault (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+16.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Theriault is clearly favored to win: Theriault wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Appleby (D)
8%
chance of winning
Theriault (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Austin Theriault
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.76 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,541
- People per km²
- 1
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 70%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,834 votes · R+30.9✓ Lucien Jb Daigle (R)65.5%
John L Martin (D)34.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,057 two-party votes · R+21.3 · R+19.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.7%
Kamala Harris (D)39.3%
2022
4,052 votes · R+38.6✓ Austin L Theriault (R)69.3%
Dana Marie Appleby (D)30.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,380 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kristi Michele Mathieson (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,678 two-party votes · R+10.3 · R+14.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Joe Biden (D)44.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,528 two-party votes · R+6.6 · R+8.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-2Roland Daniel MartinRoger C Albert66%Rep.64%Rep. HD-4—Timothy Conrad Guerrette>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-6Melanie TompkinsDonald James Ardell>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-29Nancy Marie McDowellNancy J Theriault99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-30John J Contreni Jr.James L White>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-72Cynthia J Soma-HernandezDouglas Andrew Thomas>99%Rep.>99%Rep.