Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 139
Newton is clearly favored to win: Newton wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Lepage (D)
7%
chance of winning
Newton (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+10.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Newton is clearly favored to win: Newton wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Lepage (D)
13%
chance of winning
Newton (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+10.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jamie K Newton
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.68 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -18.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 14,973
- People per km²
- 51
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 1%
- Other / multiracial 10%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,298 votes · R+35.5✓ David C Woodsome (R)67.8%
Clifford T Krolick (D)32.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,232 two-party votes · R+15.3 · R+13.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Kamala Harris (D)42.3%
2022
3,965 votes · R+29.8✓ David Woodsome (R)64.9%
Nancy Germaine Piche (D)35.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,749 votes · R+44.2✓ William R Tuell (R)72.1%
Patricia A Godin (D)27.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,794 two-party votes · R+10.2 · R+14.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Joe Biden (D)44.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,043 two-party votes · R+18.5 · R+20.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.