Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 88
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (75%).
Staples is favored to win: Staples wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Staples (D)
75%
chance of winning
Chapman (R)
25%
- Average margin
- D+5.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (83%).
Staples is clearly favored to win: Staples wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Staples (D)
83%
chance of winning
Chapman (R)
17%
- Average margin
- D+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Quentin James Chapman
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -13.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -13.74 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,471
- People per km²
- 88
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 67%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,147 votes · R+10.2✓ Quentin J Chapman (R)55.1%
Stefanie Mahr Damien (D)44.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,829 two-party votes · D+6.8 · D+8.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.4%
Donald Trump (R)46.6%
2022
4,069 votes · D+1.5✓ Kathleen A Shaw (D)50.8%
James W Sorcek (R)49.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,316 votes · R+7.2✓ Michael H Lemelin (R)53.6%
Christopher C Hamilton (D)46.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,609 two-party votes · D+4.1 · R+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.1%
Donald Trump (R)47.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,978 two-party votes · R+5.2 · R+7.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.4%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-87—David Wayne Boyer Jr.>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-89Adam R LeeJames D Berube98%Dem.90%Dem. HD-90Pamela B HartJames W SorcekD flipD flip76%Dem.67%Dem. HD-95Kiernan Innes Majerus-CollinsBret M Martel>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-96Luke Dylan JensenKerryl Lee Clement86%Dem.85%Dem. HD-98Kilton McCarthy WebbWilliam J St. Michel96%Dem.87%Dem. HD-104—R. Melissa Winslow>99%Rep.>99%Rep.